In order to successfully commercialize a technology, the right product at the right time, within the right cap-x window, must deliver the right medicine for the appropriate headache at cost plus a reasonable margin in order to be economically viable. Techno-economic modeling requires market sizing, constraint itemization and an objective function to define a new product’s feasible operating envelope to maximize potential for commercial success.
Typical techno-economic model basis:
- Market Size: $1bn in North America
- Constraints: 1 kg/min > product X, 50% < MEI < 70%, LCOE < $0.14/kg, etc.
- Objective Functions: MAX(Profit), MIN(Environmental Impact in terms of lbm CO2/min)
- Operating Envelope: iso-surface
- Forecasted Proformas
Forecasted Proformas framework:
- Monthly time interval basis
- Annual summary
- Key driver updates flow-through entire model
- Itemized assumptions
- Revisions list