In order to successfully commercialize a technology, the right product at the right time, within the right cap-x window, must deliver the right medicine for the appropriate headache at cost plus a reasonable margin in order to be economically viable. Techno-economic modeling requires market sizing, constraint itemization and an objective function to define a new product’s feasible operating envelope to maximize potential for commercial success.

Typical techno-economic model basis:

  • Market Size: $1bn in North America
  • Constraints: 1 kg/min > product X, 50% < MEI < 70%, LCOE < $0.14/kg, etc.
  • Objective Functions: MAX(Profit), MIN(Environmental Impact in terms of lbm CO2/min)
  • Operating Envelope: iso-surface
  • Forecasted Proformas

Forecasted Proformas framework:

  • Monthly time interval basis
  • Annual summary
  • Key driver updates flow-through entire model
  • Itemized assumptions
  • Revisions list